Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
