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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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