‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The shockwaves of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. LPG simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the south. People are switching to coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a western metro, media reports say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say cylinders are being reallocated to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the war.

The relevant department says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been sparked by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.